A new climate agency

To Delay / Stop Irreversible Runaway Heating
To Cut Fossil Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions
To Stabilize the Fossil Fuel Industry & Make It Accountable

BACKGROUND

We are at between 1.1°C and 1.2°C global warming now, measured from the 19th century’s industrial revolution. This August’s report by the World Metrological Office (WMO) together with the UK Met office has confirmed that 1.5°C warming could be reached as early as 2024 / 2025 if nothing changes, based on the trajectory through to the beginning of this year. Many climate experts put the start of irreversible runaway warming at around 1.5°C. Runaway heating will ensure the rapid disappearance of human societies as we know them.

The Litus Foundation has prepared a wide-ranging available Overview of ‘The Real Climate Situation’, including setting out what mitigation technologies might be able or not able to do. Crunching the numbers, the sum of the current and proposed technology mitigation projects minus the major damages currently taking place (set fires, wildfires, de-forestation, excessive gas flaring) indicates that these projects will have a negligible overall net effect within the above time frame. The evidence points to a complete climate emergency, requiring immediate new strategies and actions.

It is likely that the current pandemic / economic downturn is more likely to accelerate heating rather than slow it.

A NEW INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AGENCY

A new international agency or division of an existing agency should be established immediately, with the sole objective of delaying and avoiding irreversible runaway heating.

There seems no alternative; nothing is happening to slow heating. Extreme speed is needed. The climate emergency is on the same scale as the WWII crises; that is how we should view it. Then, projects were undertaken and completed in incredibly short time frames. It took two days to build a complete circa 12,000-ton Liberty Ship at Baltimore’s Sparrows Point steelworks; someone had an idea for a new type of fighter aircraft, the prototype was flying within a hundred days.

Attending Madrid’s COP 25 last December, the impression was that most climate professionals thought that irreversible runaway warming was likely only a few years from now. They seemed concerned and even depressed that the COP process was not making meaningful progress.

People are going to continue using fossil fuels for a long while. Today they account for around 90% of energy use. They are used for virtually all transport, space heating, industrial processes, and most electricity generation. For renewables to replace all this will require an unimaginable level of investment and an incredibly long time. Without the active cooperation of the fossil fuel industry, which is just supplying what we have asked to use, CO² emissions cannot be significantly reduced.

To give time for the various mitigation technologies to mature and properly come on stream. A new Agency should:

1. Cut fossil fuel use by additional taxes and multiple other actions. In contrast to the volunteer COP process – still achieving modest results slowly – a rapid cutback in demand could only be achieved by new rules and their enforcement.

2. Help stabilise the fossil fuel industry so it can provide continuous supply at predictable prices, as well as and providing incentives to leave unneeded resources in the ground.

An available 8-page ‘A New Climate Agency’ outlines known and new unorthodox strategies, as to how it might be established and what specific actions it might undertake.